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Tuesday 2 December 2008
Tuesday 5 February 2008
Tuesday 18 December 2007
A few final snap-shots from Bali...
In no particular order…
• Frazzled journalists: Becoming increasingly frustrated at the lack of an outcome. In a press conference on Friday, one US journalist asked when it was all going to end because he wanted to make dinner plans.
• Conference lumbago: Carrying a shoulder bag around stuffed full with documents, camcorder, digital camera etc. for 2 weeks does your back no good at all.
• Hard working people: Nita, one of the barmaids at my ’local’ near my hotel, works all day running her own business (a laundry) and then all evening (until 11.30) working in the bar. And there was me thinking I worked long hours and had a right to feel tired.
• Confusion on the final day: Has anything been agreed? What has been agreed? Who is still opposing? Who is still meeting? What the hell is going on?
• Tired delegates: Asleep on sofas in the hotel next to the Convention Centre on the Friday night.
• Pacific Islanders: The loveliest people you could hope to meet, alongside all the people I met from Bali itself.
• Conference lag: Too little sleep, too much coffee, no time for lunch.
• Sympathy: Hilary Benn wearing a full suit giving a TV interview in the baking Bali sunshine – not easy under normal circumstances but in this heat more like torture.
• A blast in my ear: ‘Motivational’ music (usually Everyday Combat by Lostprophets) during the half-hour taxi ride to the Convention Centre each morning – partly to get me going for the day and partly to block out the fear of the taxi running over one of the many scooter riders weaving in and out of the traffic.
• The rumour mill: Everyone knows something but nobody knows everything. Be careful what you say because it only takes a second or third hand conversation to turn wild speculation into ‘hard fact’ – a kind of intergovernmental conference alchemy.
• Conference paranoia: Everyone else is busier than me. Everyone else knows what’s going on. There’s something more important I should be doing. There’s somewhere else I should be. Somebody please stop these voices in my head…
• Wanting to go home and be with my family: Oh good, I can do that now…
• Frazzled journalists: Becoming increasingly frustrated at the lack of an outcome. In a press conference on Friday, one US journalist asked when it was all going to end because he wanted to make dinner plans.
• Conference lumbago: Carrying a shoulder bag around stuffed full with documents, camcorder, digital camera etc. for 2 weeks does your back no good at all.
• Hard working people: Nita, one of the barmaids at my ’local’ near my hotel, works all day running her own business (a laundry) and then all evening (until 11.30) working in the bar. And there was me thinking I worked long hours and had a right to feel tired.
• Confusion on the final day: Has anything been agreed? What has been agreed? Who is still opposing? Who is still meeting? What the hell is going on?
• Tired delegates: Asleep on sofas in the hotel next to the Convention Centre on the Friday night.
• Pacific Islanders: The loveliest people you could hope to meet, alongside all the people I met from Bali itself.
• Conference lag: Too little sleep, too much coffee, no time for lunch.
• Sympathy: Hilary Benn wearing a full suit giving a TV interview in the baking Bali sunshine – not easy under normal circumstances but in this heat more like torture.
• A blast in my ear: ‘Motivational’ music (usually Everyday Combat by Lostprophets) during the half-hour taxi ride to the Convention Centre each morning – partly to get me going for the day and partly to block out the fear of the taxi running over one of the many scooter riders weaving in and out of the traffic.
• The rumour mill: Everyone knows something but nobody knows everything. Be careful what you say because it only takes a second or third hand conversation to turn wild speculation into ‘hard fact’ – a kind of intergovernmental conference alchemy.
• Conference paranoia: Everyone else is busier than me. Everyone else knows what’s going on. There’s something more important I should be doing. There’s somewhere else I should be. Somebody please stop these voices in my head…
• Wanting to go home and be with my family: Oh good, I can do that now…
The deal
So there was me thinking I might get some time to rest in Bali before flying home but it’s been another full day at the Convention Centre.Negotiations continued through the night on the key remaining sticking points: how to reference the science and targets and whether/how to differentiate between developed and developing countries. This morning a new draft proposal was tabled but on the latter issue, India asked for more time to negotiate. Several hours later, and after a certain amount of semi-organised chaos, a new compromise was reached.
It’s not easy to explain the full story, and also convey the tense and emotional atmosphere in the huge plenary hall, but basically the group of developing countries (G77) proposed an amendment, which was supported by the EU (to much applause). The US then objected to the amendment. What followed was a series of statements from countries across the world with varying degrees of condemnation of the US position. And with the World’s media watching, the United States dropped its objection.
So high drama on the last day (+1). The final outcome is what is being called the ‘Bali Road-Map’; an agenda for the next two years of negotiations. As I have said before, this seems dull and unimportant but believe me it is a critical staging post in the international process and every single word has been pored over and many have been fought over.
I won’t go into great detail on the text but I think there are two ways of looking at the final deal. First, in the context of what is actually needed to address the problem of climate change, the negotiations here have been some way off the mark, largely due to the intransigence at various times and on various issues of the US, Canada, Japan and Russia.
Second, in the context of current global politics, what has been achieved here is probably as good as could be expected in light of the Bush Administration’s history of outright hostility to climate science and to binding international action, particularly in the UN. Despite this hostility, the UN process is still alive and kicking and in my opinion it is the only way we can get governments from across the world to take cooperative action on such a complex interaction of issues.
So, the door is still open for a progressive outcome by the time the talks are supposed to conclude in 2009. But the door has certainly not been closed to a minimalist fudge. The critical question over the coming months and years is about the extent to which politics changes in key countries like the USA and also the extent to which governments like our own put in place the policies necessary to cut the carbon out of our economy.
WDM said at the very outset that the subtext of this negotiation was all about trade and competitiveness given the massive trade deficit the US has with China. And I think this has proved to be the case. The US in particular has been petrified of agreeing to anything that is seen back in the States as being a commitment to action by the US that is much greater than the Chinese. If you are interested, take a look at WDM’s report: Blame it on China? Which explores the international politics of climate change.
On a final note, all I can say is that I feel utterly drained. Sometimes I have wondered what the hell I’m achieving by being here. On a few occasions I’ve felt like I have made a small contribution. On the plus side, I leave here with a strong sense that there is a growing movement of people from all parts of the world seeking real and lasting solutions. Being concerned about climate change is not just the preserve of middle class westerners. The strongest advocates for action are those in developing countries living at the sharp end of its impacts, and the impacts of the ‘quack remedies’ like massive palm oil plantations for bio-diesel. The voices of these people need to be heard.
Please check out WDM’s web site over the coming weeks and months as we upload some of the interviews with developing country activists that I have been able to do here.
Anyway, I hope that you (all three of you) have found the past two weeks of blogging informative, and perhaps at times thought provoking and every now and then entertaining. Maybe you’ll hear from me, or perhaps someone else at WDM, next time governments from across the globe gather together for a big showdown
Sunday 16 December 2007
Thursday 13 December 2007
The beginning of the end game
You might not have guessed from my previous blogs but I’m actually a serious and intense sort of person. This is starting to come in handy because things are getting increasingly serious and intense.
Now I have no doubt that for many outside observers a lot of this stuff will appear dreadfully dull. Let’s face it, governments have come all this way to hold talks about having further talks. We all want outcomes and we want them now.
The media will be desperately trying to find a clear cut win/lose story at the end but in all probability there wont be one – unless the whole thing collapses (very bad news) or governments create a framework here in Bali that essentially ‘locks-in’ an ambitious and equitable agreement in a couple of years time (good result).
However, in all likelihood, we’ll get some sort of score-draw with some positives and negatives, or perhaps a no-score-draw, where no agreement is reached but everyone is still rhetorically committed to the process. This latter scenario could be pretty desperate given the urgent need to get some agreed and binding action out of rich countries so that the next phase of the Kyoto Protocol can continue smoothly after 2012.
So, the word in the corridors on what is going on is as follows …
Everyone is rhetorically committed to doing a deal but major differences remain.
Some larger developing countries are prepared to talk about what kind of contribution they can make in reducing emissions but in return they want meaningful talks on transferring technology from rich countries to poor countries (opposed by the US, EU and others).
The US is playing a blocking game here and is trying to create its own process outside the UN for talks on voluntary action with what it calls ‘the big emitters’.
Australia isn’t sure what it wants because the new administration hasn’t had time to communicate to its negotiators what the new strategy is. So Australian officials are in what they call a ‘holding pattern’, which seems to translate into being either silent or moderately obstructive.
The Saudis are still trying to insert language in the text that opens the door for ‘compensation’ for lost oil revenue (they just won’t let it go).
The EU is playing a relatively more progressive role here (emphasis on the word ‘relatively’) and is pushing for specific language on targets (opposed by the US, Japan, Canada and Russia) but my fear is that the EU will get outplayed by the US in the final hours of the talks (seen it happen before).
The small island states are still demanding, cajoling and pleading for more radical and urgent action but it’s falling largely on deaf ears.
Word is that Number 10 is worried about how the outcome (i.e. just an agreement on a future agenda for talks) will play with the UK media and public given high expectations of some action. I think the main action we need to see from Number 10 is scrapping plans for airport expansion, coal fired power stations, nuclear plants and ever more roads.
Now I have no doubt that for many outside observers a lot of this stuff will appear dreadfully dull. Let’s face it, governments have come all this way to hold talks about having further talks. We all want outcomes and we want them now.
The media will be desperately trying to find a clear cut win/lose story at the end but in all probability there wont be one – unless the whole thing collapses (very bad news) or governments create a framework here in Bali that essentially ‘locks-in’ an ambitious and equitable agreement in a couple of years time (good result).
However, in all likelihood, we’ll get some sort of score-draw with some positives and negatives, or perhaps a no-score-draw, where no agreement is reached but everyone is still rhetorically committed to the process. This latter scenario could be pretty desperate given the urgent need to get some agreed and binding action out of rich countries so that the next phase of the Kyoto Protocol can continue smoothly after 2012.
So, the word in the corridors on what is going on is as follows …
Everyone is rhetorically committed to doing a deal but major differences remain.
Some larger developing countries are prepared to talk about what kind of contribution they can make in reducing emissions but in return they want meaningful talks on transferring technology from rich countries to poor countries (opposed by the US, EU and others).
The US is playing a blocking game here and is trying to create its own process outside the UN for talks on voluntary action with what it calls ‘the big emitters’.
Australia isn’t sure what it wants because the new administration hasn’t had time to communicate to its negotiators what the new strategy is. So Australian officials are in what they call a ‘holding pattern’, which seems to translate into being either silent or moderately obstructive.
The Saudis are still trying to insert language in the text that opens the door for ‘compensation’ for lost oil revenue (they just won’t let it go).
The EU is playing a relatively more progressive role here (emphasis on the word ‘relatively’) and is pushing for specific language on targets (opposed by the US, Japan, Canada and Russia) but my fear is that the EU will get outplayed by the US in the final hours of the talks (seen it happen before).
The small island states are still demanding, cajoling and pleading for more radical and urgent action but it’s falling largely on deaf ears.
Word is that Number 10 is worried about how the outcome (i.e. just an agreement on a future agenda for talks) will play with the UK media and public given high expectations of some action. I think the main action we need to see from Number 10 is scrapping plans for airport expansion, coal fired power stations, nuclear plants and ever more roads.
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